Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 13.503677 15.427219 17.510970 19.933884 22.671624 25.667121 29.190972
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 10.757321 13.356569 16.395514 20.202550 24.835706 30.282396 37.162188
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 9.156661 11.992354 15.473166 20.044848 25.874787 33.043063 42.506725
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 7.828727 10.753456 14.502516 19.637056 26.460012 35.185936 47.159269
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.972892 9.979986 13.981080 19.661047 27.478714 37.816647 52.472906
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.376516 9.472776 13.733659 19.981050 28.854901 40.945152 58.591473
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 5.825254 8.957795 13.404986 20.122617 29.944455 43.696930 64.309053
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.266896 8.368618 12.903705 19.949174 30.534234 45.739572 69.101225
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.880158 7.993718 12.672268 20.131905 31.623779 48.524859 75.089090
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.653842 7.841363 12.753852 20.776724 33.425051 52.433419 82.938893
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.258555 7.380548 12.314978 20.568223 33.881059 54.320272 87.803359
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.729829 6.651687 11.389200 19.506181 32.904421 53.920874 89.065968
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.549799 6.500642 11.399492 19.981490 34.450970 57.599312 97.046857
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.374694 6.342489 11.384564 20.410991 35.947091 61.281604 105.251056
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.106867 5.993847 11.013831 20.198272 36.336201 63.159333 110.568154
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.837043 5.616605 10.561788 19.805103 36.379152 64.447173 114.947742
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.655769 5.387400 10.353180 19.823384 37.129833 66.954873 121.515706
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.533648 5.259730 10.317504 20.147896 38.436865 70.477247 130.011861
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.396546 5.090361 10.190192 20.289901 39.414326 73.464421 137.709990
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.230810 4.848986 9.907345 20.115320 39.789506 75.389462 143.594718
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.121767 4.713324 9.816806 20.299414 40.840145 78.574086 151.907187
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.072756 4.698336 9.961187 20.949329 42.812395 83.539051 163.735312
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.934119 4.480684 9.683524 20.739181 43.100793 85.383100 169.822370